The Weather Network – Snow creeps further south, threatens the start of Thanksgiving in Ontario

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As the month of October begins, so does a wild temperature run — one that will send daytime highs into more November-like territory across Ontario and Quebec. That’s as a patch of cold Arctic air dives south at the end of the week, following a sweeping cold front that will drop temperatures by around 10 degrees on Friday.

“Along with the drop in temperatures, snow will creep further south across Ontario by the end of the week and into the Thanksgiving weekend, possibly making its seasonal debut in parts of southern Ontario,” said Kelly Sonnenburg, a meteorologist at The Weather Network.

Do not miss: Canada’s October Outlook: What to Expect This Month

The week begins with a gradual warming trend in central Canada, peaking on Wednesday as temperatures reach or exceed 20°C in southern Ontario and Quebec, with upper teens to near 20°C in the National Capital Region.


Comfortable conditions won’t last long, however, as the cold front plows into the region on Thursday.

This potent front will track across Ontario and Quebec, producing showers while gusty winds usher in a dramatic drop in temperatures. Wet snow is even likely for parts of northern Ontario early Thursday, including the higher elevations near Thunder Bay and toward Timmins, as temperatures dip into the low to mid-single digits.

Wet snow will try to spread across northeastern Ontario later in the day Thursday before the cold front moves across southern parts.

“There is some uncertainty as to how far south the snow spreads,” says Sonnenburg. “Late Friday into Saturday morning, parts of the northern cottage country could also see some showers mixed in with cool rain. The question is whether southern Ontario will cool enough to see snow overnight into Saturday morning.”

What is most likely at this point is that some lake effect showers will develop off Georgian Bay and Lake Huron. However, if temperatures are cool enough, some of the rain could transition to a mix or some wet showers, more likely to the higher elevations early Saturday morning in southern Ontario.


Overnight descents this week will bring a likely frost in some areas, so be sure to protect your plants. The risk will become more widespread at the end of the week.

Friday will be the coldest day many of us have seen in months. November-like weather arrives to finish the week with high temperatures back in the single digits for much of the region.

If Toronto only reaches 9°C on Friday, it will be the city’s first single-digit high temperature in 169 days – our last daytime below 10 degrees was a chilly reading of 4.7°C on April 27.

The cool weather will remain at the start of the long weekend, but temperatures should rise somewhat to near-seasonal as it progresses. However, there is a possibility of a few days of milder weather in the following week.

Will the pattern change in October?

As October progresses, there are several signals in the global pattern that support a shift in the cool pattern that would allow the warmer-than-normal weather in the west to spread back east into eastern Canada, according to Dr. Doug Gillham, a meteorologist at the Weather Network.


“However, our forecast confidence for mid-to-late October is lower than normal,” Gillham said in The Weather Network’s October outlook.

However, we still believe that the second half of October will bring periods of milder weather, but we are also concerned that the early pattern will continue to show at times in the latter part of the month.

SEE: Why you can’t rule out tornadoes in Ontario’s cooler months

Check back for the latest Ontario and Quebec conditions.

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